32. Pre-fesability Study of a New Rail Link between the Ferghana Valley, Bishkek and Kashgar (China)

Geographic Focus: State Directorate for Planning and Construction of Main Railway Lines, Kyrgghyzjeldorstroy, Kyrgyzstan,Uzbekistan Railways, Tajikistan Railways, and other Railways on the TRACECA route, which would benefit from transit traffic along the new link.

Project Budget : EURO 1,500,000

Contractor : to be contracted in 2001

Implementation timetable : 12 months

REPORTS ON LINE FOR THIS PROJECT (If needed, instructions for download here)

Background and Objectives. The Ferghana Valley is the most densely populated area in Central Asia. It straddles the borders of three countries, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tadjikistan. For all three of them it is an area of principal economic importance.

The valley floor is wide, fertile and well irrigated by the Syr Darya River and its tributaries. It has therefor been intensely cultivated. The most important crop is cotton, which is practically all sold on world markets. Furthermore, considerable industrial development has taken place. The city of Andijan produces and imports components for assembly of automobiles and consumer goods. Several other cities such as Xojand, Kokand, Osh, Djala-Bad and Feghana are relatively well developed centres of commerce.
There are known to be mineral and hydrocarbon deposits in the area. The most important exploitation at present is of petroleum oil in the Uzbek sector of the Valley.
On the Chinese side of the border, Kashgar is the most westerly Chinese city. It has recently been connected to Urumchi by a new rail line. It is separated from the Ferghana Valley by the Pamir Mountain range. To the south Kashgar is linked by the Karakoram Highway to the port of Daccar, on the Indian Ocean.
Bishkek, which is the other important pole of this proposed study, is separated from the Ferghana Valley by the Tien Chan Mountains. The Mountains are known to contain coal and mineral deposits. The Kyrgyz are presently extending the existing rail line between Bishkek and Issy-Kul southwards, to reach a coal deposit.
The region is rich in its history of trade and cultural exchanges. The traditional silk route was in fact a braided network of links, between ancient centres of population, and mountain passes, one of which was the Osh-Kashgar route forming part of this study.
Present traffic between the Ferghana Valley and the East, for example from Osh or Andijan, to Bishkek or Druzbha, follows a somewhat circuitous route through Bekabad and Tashkent. The existing rail links of TRACECA into the Ferghana Valley, and to Bishkek, are quite good. The proposed rail links to be studied would extend these links to the Chinese rail system at Kashgar. This could reduce distances traveled, and open up possibilities for new transit traffic on the Europe-Asia land bridge.
Kyrgyzstan possess enormous coal deposits in the region of Karakecha, about 190 km from the existing rail terminal at Balykchi. A specific rail link project is being developed with Japanese assistance, which will allow coal to be transported to Bishkek for use in district heating. This link would form part of the overall scheme to be studied within the TRACECA project.
All of the countries directly concerned by this study are land-locked, and highly dependent on a limited number of transport corridors to carry out their trade with the rest of the world. The proposed new rail link would provide one additional outlet for them, thus increasing competition, strengthening their negotiating positions, and providing greater insurance against the effects of any eventual blockage of existing routes, for whatever reasons.
TRACECA has carried out a pre-feasibility study of several links of regional interest, in the area. In the case of the road link from the Ferghana Valley towards Kashgar, a full feasibility study of road improvements is planned under the Kyrgyz TACIS national programme. Furthermore, Uzbekistan has agreed with Kyrgyzstan to finance and to carry out immediately certain repairs and improvements to the road. The road link from Bishkek to Osh is benefiting from rehabilitation works financed by the Asian Development Bank. Pre-feasibility studies of the rail links which are the subject of this study, indicated that they were of extremely high cost, principally because of the mountainous nature of the terrain crossed. However, there is still the sentiment within the region that these links are of such crucial importance, that further efforts should be made to analyse their viability and to promote them, even if only as long term projects.
The objectives of this project would be to carry out a technical study to investigate the development of rail links between Bishkek, Osh/Djalala-Bad, and Kashgar. The project is to prioritise development of such lines, incrementally, into new interlinked routes.
As the projects are long term in nature, traffic demand for the rail links is somewhat speculative. However the technical conditions may be expected to remain constant, and so the balance of effort within the project will be devoted to the technical and environmental analysis.
Following the results of this study, it is to be expected that the next major technical step in the development of the project would be the implementation of a detailed design project, including sub-surface geotechnical investigation, for the tunnels, major structures and earth/rock works. Negotiations on project financing will undoubtedly require long negotiations, and several independent studies of the project's financial viability.

Key Issues.

• The project would include the following actions, not necessarily in the sequence given:
• · Attend and participate actively in all meetings of the tri-partite commission (Chian, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan) which has been set up to promote the project and co-ordinate actions.
• · Review the previous studies carried out by local design institutes and the TRACECA pre-feasibility studies.
• · Develop more detailed topographic maps of the region traversed, by aerial/satellite photograph techniques, and field survey of key points.
• · Carry out geotechnical and hydrological investigations of the routes
• · Review existing geotechnical plans, carry out a detailed field surface survey, collect, test and categorise centre line samples. Prepare a geological plan of the terrain traversed.
• · Investigate the seismological characteristics of the zones traversed and the implications for the project in terms of cost to maintain acceptable security of the lines.
• · Surface site investigate all tunnel sites
• · Surface site investigate all potential rock avalanche hazards
• · Site investigate all potential snow avalanche and flood hazards
• · Surface site investigate all locations of substantial bridges (eg.greater than 25m spans)
• · Design and specify a plan for sub-surface investigations (eg.trenching, drilling, testing etc.) for all civil and structural works. Design and specify a detailed hydrological survey. Estimate the costs of such surveys.
• · Optimise the proposed alignments for minimum cost of construction.
• · Provide typical details of design elements, including typical cross sections for divers terrains and conditions, protection works, river trainings, snow drifting protection, a standard bridge and culvert type, etc.
• · Provide longitudinal sections at a scale of 1/5000.
• · Provide outline details of proposed works at each difficult section, eg.unstable slopes, tunnels, bridges >25m spans
• · Provide an outline construction logistics plan, including temporary and permanent access roads to be created, camps and services for construction workers, camps for equipment maintenance, etc., and a possible yearly construction progress plan. Highlight any logistic constraints on project construction.
• · Propose the operational characteristics of the rail links to be created. Optimise the project characteristics for such aspects as single or double track, and whether the line should be electrified.
• · Develop detailed cost estimates of the optimal works, and three options. It is to be expected that optimal implies minimum construction costs of a single, non-electrified line, with fairly low-speed/low-capacity operating characteristics, but other options should be investigated, to be sure that the most financially viable project is proposed.
• · Carry out a traffic study using varied methodologies and macro-scenarios
• · Refresh and expand on the existing demand study, which uses a fairly standard economic step model dependent on macro-economic extrapolations
• · Introduce at least one new approach to the demand analysis (eg.analagous developments elsewhere in the world)
• · Compare the separate approaches
• · Propose tariffs
• · Comment specifically on the competitivity of the trans-eurasia land bridge by such a new route as this project, relative to sea routes, using data from available reports
• · Study the permutations of route developments possible, and propose the optimal development plan. This should take into account the attraction of possible partial realisations of the project, with branches to sites along the route (eg. to a coal or other mine), as well as full realisation, to allow regional and trans-continental impact.
• · Carry out a social impact analysis, and environmental impact analysis, using standard development bank guidelines.
• · Carry out economic and financial analysis using standard development bank and business criteria. Present detailed cash-flow spread sheets of project options over a thirty year operating horizon (ie. during the presumably phased construction period, and thirty years beyond).
• · Comment on the financial implications for the Kyrgyz economy. This may include the ability of the national economy to pay for such a project, the impact on the balance of exteranl trade, and the supply-demand implications of such a project taking place in Kyrgyzstan (eg. the labour market, construction materials supplies, and secondary economic effects).
• · Comment on the attraction of the project to alternative financing sources such as private concessionaires, and with neighbouring state financial support.
• · Recommend next steps for project development
• China has finished the construction of the railway link between Ouroumtsi and Kashgar ( 850 km) in June 2000. Chinese plan to fund and construct the link from Kashgar to the border (60km) The project consultant should visit Beijing and Kashgar, report on the planning of the Chinese authorities concerning the construction of the rail link from the Kyrgyz border to Kashgar (60 km) and make a preliminary estimate of its cost.